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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 20 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to BAL 6, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace. CLE-38-T.Brown was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model