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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 30

Cleveland Browns 20 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 7-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.07 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model