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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 24

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Cleveland Browns 29

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 4-Z.Flowers.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +1.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.05 EP