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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 11-J.Stout punts 30 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-28-S.Kane.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP