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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2024-10-20 · 20:20 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

NYJ
37.8%
PIT
62.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.114 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (PIT): -0.059 EPA/dropback in prior starts (PIT starting Russell Wilson in place of Justin Fields)
  • PIT offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 19
–
PIT 22
Projected margin: PIT by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NYJ

Michael Carter CB Out Back
D.J. Reed CB Questionable Groin
Tyler Conklin TE Questionable Hip
Chazz Surratt LB Questionable Heel

PIT

Zach Frazier C Out Ankle
Nick Herbig LB Out Hamstring
Cordarrelle Patterson RB Out Knee
Dylan Cook T Out Foot
Damontae Kazee S Questionable Ankle
Montravius Adams DT Questionable Knee
Roman Wilson WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 15
–
PIT 37

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:37 FG PIT (11:37) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. NYJ 0 – PIT 3
  • Q1 02:33 TD NYJ (2:33) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – PIT 3
  • Q2 08:24 FG PIT (8:24) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. NYJ 7 – PIT 6
  • Q2 05:34 TD NYJ (5:34) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-T.Conklin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – PIT 6
  • Q2 00:32 TD PIT (:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-G.Pickens for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 15 – PIT 12
  • Q3 07:51 FG PIT (7:51) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. NYJ 15 – PIT 16
  • Q3 07:22 TD PIT (7:22) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 15 – PIT 22
  • Q4 12:13 TD PIT (12:13) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 11-V.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 15 – PIT 29
  • Q4 00:30 TD PIT (:30) 22-N.Harris left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 15 – PIT 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 83%

    (11:37) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:51) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to PIT 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (8:16) 8-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 82-X.Gipson MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NYJ 18.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:47) 8-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to NYJ 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 21 for 4 yards (42-J.Pierre). FUMBLES (42-J.Pierre), ball out of bounds at NYJ 22.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to PIT 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-C.Austin to PIT 34 for no gain (37-Q.Stiggers).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:53) 8-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to PIT 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (8:24) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 53%

    (3:19) 8-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to NYJ 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-87-R.Williams.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 35%

    (12:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to PIT 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 21 for 9 yards (32-I.Davis).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 99%

    (7:51) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 76%

    (3:36) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-M.Williams to PIT 17 for 15 yards (25-D.Elliott) [99-L.Ogunjobi].

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (2:42) 9-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Lowry), Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 87%

    (7:56) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams (95-K.Benton).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 93%

    (2:44) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to NYJ 18 for 1 yard (54-J.Kinlaw). New York Jets challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 97%

    (:30) 22-N.Harris left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.