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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 49

New York Jets 15 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to PIT 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 21 for 9 yards (32-I.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.00 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP