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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 78

New York Jets 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to PIT 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.71 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP