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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 17

New York Jets 15 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 9-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Lowry), Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.43 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model