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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – New York Jets 15

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 8-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to NYJ 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-87-R.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -1.70 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model