4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 10

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 – New York Jets 15

What Actually Happened

(:30) 22-N.Harris left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +2.88 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 10, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.17 EP