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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 83

New York Jets 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to PIT 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.03 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 83, worth -5.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model