MIA @ IND — 4th & Data

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HC Mike McDaniel

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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen

Sunday 2024-10-20 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

MIA

29.7%

IND

70.3%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

MIA offense: -0.202 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
MIA on 7 more days rest than IND
IND offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
IND defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
QB edge to IND: Anthony Richardson (IND) -0.087 vs Tim Boyle (MIA) -0.217 EPA/dropback (IND starting Anthony Richardson in place of Joe Flacco; MIA starting Tim Boyle in place of Tyler Huntley)
Indoors — weather neutralised
MIA defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 19

–

IND 25

Projected margin: IND by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

MIA

Jevon Holland S Doubtful Hand

Odell Beckham WR Questionable nan

Cam Smith CB Questionable Hamstring

Skylar Thompson QB Questionable Ribs

Blake Ferguson LS Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

Austin Jackson T Questionable Back

David Long LB Questionable Knee

Emmanuel Ogbah DE Questionable Biceps

IND

Chris Lammons CB Out Ankle

Jonathan Taylor RB Out Ankle

Dayo Odeyingbo DE Questionable Hamstring

Michael Pittman WR Questionable Back

Braden Smith T Questionable Knee

Alec Pierce WR Questionable Shoulder

E.J. Speed LB Questionable Knee

Josh Downs WR Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 10

–

IND 16

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:02 TD MIA (6:02) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass short left to 9-J.Smith for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – IND 0
Q2 00:25 FG MIA (:25) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey. MIA 10 – IND 0
Q2 00:05 FG IND (:05) 7-M.Gay 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 10 – IND 3
Q3 09:11 TD IND (9:11) (Shotgun) 31-T.Goodson left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – IND 9
Q4 08:44 FG IND (8:44) 7-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 10 – IND 13
Q4 01:55 FG IND (1:55) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 10 – IND 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(13:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 27 for 9 yards (38-K.Joseph).
Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(12:19) 16-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to IND 10, Center-49-M.Overton, downed by MIA-22-E.Campbell.
Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 90

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(11:54) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to MIA 42, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.
Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(11:43) 16-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to IND 22, Center-49-M.Overton, out of bounds.
Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(10:06) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to MIA 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.
Q2 MIA 4th & 18 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(6:01) 16-J.Bailey punts 39 yards to IND 31, Center-49-M.Overton, out of bounds.
Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(3:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.
Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 15

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

(:25) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(13:15) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to IND 15, Center-49-M.Overton, out of bounds.
Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 80

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 50%

(11:55) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to MIA 38, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.
Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(7:36) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to IND 15, Center-49-M.Overton. 1-J.Downs to IND 15 for no gain (33-S.Neal).
Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(6:38) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to MIA 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 45 for 9 yards (50-S.Olubi; 41-G.Stuard).
Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 80

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP

p(convert) 54%

(1:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.
Q3 MIA 4th & 12 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(:30) 16-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to IND 14, Center-49-M.Overton. 1-J.Downs to IND 27 for 13 yards (30-A.Ingold, 56-Q.Bell).
Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

(8:44) 7-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 36

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 70%

(5:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 20 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

(1:55) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 33 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 76%

(:11) (Shotgun) 14-T.Boyle pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Washington.