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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 10 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-M.Overton, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.25 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP