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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 10 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(:30) 16-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to IND 14, Center-49-M.Overton. 1-J.Downs to IND 27 for 13 yards (30-A.Ingold, 56-Q.Bell).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.88 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 31, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model