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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 7-M.Gay 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +2.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model