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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 10 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to IND 15, Center-49-M.Overton. 1-J.Downs to IND 15 for no gain (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model