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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 84

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to MIA 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 45 for 9 yards (50-S.Olubi; 41-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.11 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 84, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model