Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(12:19) 16-J.Bailey punts 59 yards to IND 10, Center-49-M.Overton, downed by MIA-22-E.Campbell.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.59 EP
59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model