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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Monday 2024-09-23 · 19:30 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

JAX
25.6%
BUF
74.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.137 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF on 3 more days rest than JAX

Predicted Final Score

JAX 19
–
BUF 26
Projected margin: BUF by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

JAX

Evan Engram TE Out Hamstring
Tank Bigsby RB Questionable Shoulder
Tim Jones WR Questionable Foot
Darnell Savage S Questionable Quadricep

BUF

Terrel Bernard LB Out Pectoral
Taron Johnson CB Out Forearm

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 10
–
BUF 47

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:39 TD BUF (9:39) 4-J.Cook left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 03:34 TD BUF (3:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 9 yds. into end zone, crossing from middle. JAX 0 – BUF 12
  • Q2 10:43 FG JAX (10:43) 39-C.Little 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – BUF 13
  • Q2 06:25 TD BUF (6:25) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 0-K.Coleman for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at JAX 5, angling to corner of end zone. JAX 3 – BUF 19
  • Q2 02:11 TD BUF (2:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at JAX 23, crossing from middle. JAX 3 – BUF 26
  • Q2 00:24 TD BUF (:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 26-Ty.Johnson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone. JAX 3 – BUF 33
  • Q3 11:20 TD JAX (11:20) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 85-B.Strange for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 8 yds. into end zone, near sideline. JAX 9 – BUF 34
  • Q3 05:06 FG BUF (5:06) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. JAX 10 – BUF 37
  • Q4 07:48 FG BUF (7:48) 2-T.Bass 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. JAX 10 – BUF 40
  • Q4 04:08 TD BUF (4:08) 22-R.Davis right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – BUF 46

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 47%

    (13:01) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-K.Shakir ran ob at JAX 32 for 12 yards (5-A.Cisco).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:49) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to BUF 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 35 for 22 yards (81-J.Deguara; 57-C.Johnson).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 97%

    (5:37) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left guard to JAX 9 for 2 yards (23-F.Oluokun).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:25) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to JAX 41 for 2 yards (54-B.Spector; 91-E.Oliver).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (10:43) 39-C.Little 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:03) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to JAX 41 for 2 yards (92-Da.Jones; 42-Do.Williams).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 18 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 36 for 19 yards (51-V.Miller).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right. Thrown away.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 60%

    (12:22) 4-T.Bigsby right end to BUF 37 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (5:06) 2-T.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 52%

    (1:47) 1-T.Etienne up the middle to BUF 39 for 3 yards (91-E.Oliver).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 94%

    (14:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at BUF 27 for -10 yards (40-V.Miller).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (12:02) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to JAX 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay. PENALTY on BUF-46-J.Ingram, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 17.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:04) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Thomas [40-V.Miller].

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 87%

    (7:48) 2-T.Bass 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 10 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (:48) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 11-P.Washington (29-B.Codrington). Receiver and coverage 7 yds. into end zone, crossing from right.