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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 39-C.Little 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.89 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model