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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 17

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Buffalo Bills 37

What Actually Happened

(14:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at BUF 27 for -10 yards (40-V.Miller).

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP