4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Buffalo Bills 34

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 4-T.Bigsby right end to BUF 37 for 2 yards (47-C.Benford).

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.40 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model