Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 18 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Buffalo Bills 27

(1:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 36 for 19 yards (51-V.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.44 EP
75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model