Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Buffalo Bills 37

(10:04) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 7-B.Thomas [40-V.Miller].

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.22 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP