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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 37 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to JAX 17, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay. PENALTY on BUF-46-J.Ingram, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.36 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 24, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP