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NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2024-09-15 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NYJ
33.2%
TEN
66.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.257 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Will Levis (TEN): -0.070 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: -0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 17
–
TEN 22
Projected margin: TEN by 5 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NYJ

D.J. Reed CB Questionable Knee
Micheal Clemons DE Questionable Triceps

TEN

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 24
–
TEN 17

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:35 TD TEN (2:35) 0-C.Ridley right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 01:55 TD NYJ (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 0-B.Allen for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – TEN 7
  • Q2 00:03 FG TEN (:03) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. NYJ 7 – TEN 10
  • Q3 12:13 TD NYJ (12:13) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 20-B.Hall for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – TEN 10
  • Q3 06:01 FG NYJ (6:01) 9-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NYJ 17 – TEN 10
  • Q3 03:28 TD TEN (3:28) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 17 – TEN 16
  • Q4 04:36 TD NYJ (4:36) 0-B.Allen right tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 23 – TEN 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:02) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to NYJ 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 23 for 8 yards (29-J.Brownlee, 44-M.Brown).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (9:19) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to TEN 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 32 for 9 yards (55-C.Surratt; 44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (15:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to TEN 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 16 for no gain (19-I.Charles).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:10) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to TEN 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 25 for -2 yards (19-I.Charles).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 16 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:39) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 63 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 32 for 19 yards (57-L.Gifford, 50-J.Gibbens).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (8:42) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to TEN 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 38 for 12 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:19) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 19-I.Charles, Center-46-M.Cox, ball out of bounds at TEN 30.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (6:01) 9-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (15:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to TEN 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 25 for 18 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 59 yards to NYJ 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 16 for 8 yards (39-D.Baker).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (10:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to TEN 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Jackson.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:48) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to NYJ 26, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 14 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Boyd (22-T.Adams).