Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 10 – New York Jets 14

(9:39) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 63 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 32 for 19 yards (57-L.Gifford, 50-J.Gibbens).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.26 EP
74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model