4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 15

New York Jets 14 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 9-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.30 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model