4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 14

Tennessee Titans 17 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Boyd (22-T.Adams).

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.66 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.14 EP