4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to NYJ 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 23 for 8 yards (29-J.Brownlee, 44-M.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.65 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model