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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 17 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 59 yards to NYJ 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 82-X.Gipson ran ob at NYJ 16 for 8 yards (39-D.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.86 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model