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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 84

New York Jets 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to TEN 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 25 for -2 yards (19-I.Charles).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.06 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 42, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model