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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
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Washington Commanders

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2024-09-15 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NYG
49.2%
WAS
50.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.197 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Jayden Daniels (WAS) -0.064 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.167 EPA/dropback
  • Jayden Daniels (WAS) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19
–
WAS 21
Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NYG

Nick McCloud CB Out Knee
Darius Muasau LB Out Knee
Gunner Olszewski WR Out Groin

WAS

Emmanuel Forbes CB Out Thumb
Clelin Ferrell DE Questionable Knee
Quan Martin S Questionable Hamstring
Jer'Zhan Newton DT Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 18
–
WAS 21

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:27 FG WAS (5:27) 3-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. NYG 0 – WAS 3
  • Q1 01:10 TD NYG (1:10) 26-D.Singletary right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – WAS 3
  • Q2 10:41 FG WAS (10:41) 3-A.Seibert 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. NYG 6 – WAS 6
  • Q2 01:53 FG WAS (1:53) 3-A.Seibert 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. NYG 6 – WAS 9
  • Q2 00:12 TD NYG (:12) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 1-M.Nabers for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 12 – WAS 9
  • Q3 08:01 FG WAS (8:01) 3-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. NYG 12 – WAS 12
  • Q3 02:50 FG WAS (2:50) 3-A.Seibert 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. NYG 12 – WAS 15
  • Q4 11:35 TD NYG (11:35) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 17-W.Robinson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 18 – WAS 15
  • Q4 07:16 FG WAS (7:16) 3-A.Seibert 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. NYG 18 – WAS 18
  • Q4 00:04 FG WAS (:04) 3-A.Seibert 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. NYG 18 – WAS 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 75%

    (8:49) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson left guard to NYG 25 for 6 yards (31-T.Nubin).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (5:27) 3-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 13 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 82%

    (10:41) 3-A.Seibert 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 39%

    (8:23) 6-J.Gillan punts 27 yards to WAS 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (1:53) 3-A.Seibert 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (8:01) 3-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:40) 6-J.Gillan punts 60 yards to WAS 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 30 for 24 yards (85-C.Manhertz).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (2:50) 3-A.Seibert 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 75%

    (14:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 1-M.Nabers to WAS 27 for 4 yards (1-N.Igbinoghene).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (7:16) 3-A.Seibert 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 22 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 89%

    (2:09) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 1-M.Nabers.