Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 66

New York Giants 12 – Washington Commanders 12

(7:40) 6-J.Gillan punts 60 yards to WAS 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 14-O.Zaccheaus to WAS 30 for 24 yards (85-C.Manhertz).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.19 EP
65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model