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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 11

Washington Commanders 12 – New York Giants 12

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 3-A.Seibert 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model