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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 9

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 3-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 9, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP