4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 13 at the 27

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 3-A.Seibert 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.06 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model