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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 45

New York Giants 6 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 6-J.Gillan punts 27 yards to WAS 18, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.63 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model