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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 8

Washington Commanders 6 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 3-A.Seibert 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.85 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 8, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP