LV @ BAL — 4th & Data

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HC Antonio Pierce

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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh

Sunday 2024-09-15 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 9.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

27.9%

BAL

72.1%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

LV offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
BAL offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
BAL defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
BAL on 3 more days rest than LV
LV defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 19

–

BAL 26

Projected margin: BAL by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

LV

Decamerion Richardson CB Out Hamstring

Tyree Wilson DE Out Knee

Jackson Powers-Johnson G Questionable Illness

BAL

Nate Wiggins CB Out Neck

Adisa Isaac LB Doubtful Hamstring

Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Eye

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 26

–

BAL 23

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:34 FG BAL (8:34) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. LV 0 – BAL 3
Q2 09:23 FG LV (9:23) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – BAL 3
Q2 06:04 FG BAL (6:04) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. LV 3 – BAL 6
Q2 01:42 FG LV (1:42) 2-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 6 – BAL 6
Q2 00:07 FG BAL (:07) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. LV 6 – BAL 9
Q3 11:45 TD BAL (11:45) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – BAL 15
Q3 02:40 TD LV (2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-A.Mattison up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 12 – BAL 16
Q4 12:17 TD BAL (12:17) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – BAL 22
Q4 09:24 FG LV (9:24) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 16 – BAL 23
Q4 03:57 TD LV (3:57) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 22 – BAL 23
Q4 00:31 FG LV (:31) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 26 – BAL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LV 4th & 18 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(12:54) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to BAL 30, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 3-D.Harty to BAL 45 for 15 yards (59-L.Masterson).
Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 78%

(8:34) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q1 LV 4th & 12 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(4:27) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to BAL 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 3-D.Harty.
Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(2:23) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to LV 32, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Tucker pushed ob at LV 40 for 8 yards (49-C.Board).
Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 54

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP

p(convert) 46%

(:49) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to BAL 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-43-K.Mauga.
Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(14:16) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to LV 20, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Tucker pushed ob at LV 28 for 8 yards (88-C.Kolar). Penalty on LV-56-A.Burney, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 35

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 67%

(9:23) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%

(6:04) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 38

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 59%

(2:30) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q2 LV 4th & 14 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 71%

(1:42) 2-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 25

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 86%

(7:42) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams (21-B.Stephens).
Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

(9:24) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(7:44) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to LV 30, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Tucker to LV 30 for no gain (5-J.Armour-Davis).
Q4 BAL 4th & 16 at the 76 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(2:27) 11-J.Stout punts 24 yards to BAL 48, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-25-K.Hollman, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 48.
Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 20 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 91%

(:31) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 59 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP

p(convert) 35%

(:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to LV 34 for 25 yards. Lateral to 43-J.Hill to LV 29 for 5 yards. 43-J.Hill pass incomplete short right to 72-A.Vorhees. PENALTY on BAL-43-J.Hill, Illegal Forward Pass, 0 yards, enforced at LV 29.