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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 54

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(:49) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to BAL 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by LV-43-K.Mauga.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.54 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP