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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 79

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 11-J.Stout punts 47 yards to LV 32, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Tucker pushed ob at LV 40 for 8 yards (49-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.70 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 36, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model