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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 38

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.90 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model