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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 20

Las Vegas Raiders 23 – Baltimore Ravens 23

What Actually Happened

(:31) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +1.57 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model