Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to LV 20, Center-46-N.Moore. 11-T.Tucker pushed ob at LV 28 for 8 yards (88-C.Kolar). Penalty on LV-56-A.Burney, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
57% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model