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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 25

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Baltimore Ravens 16

What Actually Happened

(7:42) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams (21-B.Stephens).

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.45 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model