4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
LA Away

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2024-09-15 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

LA
66.1%
ARI
33.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.150 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.170 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.045 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.145 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LA 27
–
ARI 21
Projected margin: LA by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

LA

Davis Allen TE Out Back
Kevin Dotson G Questionable Foot
Cobie Durant CB Questionable Toe
Quentin Lake S Questionable Hip

ARI

Max Melton CB Questionable Concussion
Xavier Weaver WR Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 10
–
ARI 41

Prediction missed by 37 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:09 TD ARI (11:09) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 18-M.Harrison for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – ARI 6
  • Q1 08:57 TD ARI (8:57) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 18-M.Harrison for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – ARI 13
  • Q2 13:39 TD ARI (13:39) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 84-E.Higgins for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – ARI 20
  • Q2 09:41 FG LA (9:41) 16-J.Karty 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – ARI 21
  • Q2 05:13 FG ARI (5:13) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. LA 3 – ARI 24
  • Q3 10:38 TD ARI (10:38) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – ARI 30
  • Q3 03:32 FG ARI (3:32) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. LA 3 – ARI 34
  • Q3 00:44 TD LA (:44) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – ARI 34
  • Q4 09:09 TD ARI (9:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left end to LA 5 for 2 yards (8-J.Verse). FUMBLES (8-J.Verse), recovered by ARI-85-T.McBride at LA -2. TOUCHDOWN. LA 10 – ARI 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 59%

    (13:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to ARI 40 for 1 yard (3-B.Baker).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:09) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to ARI 23, Center-47-A.Ward. 4-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 40 for 17 yards (35-J.Hummel).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:13) 42-E.Evans punts 63 yards to ARI 1, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-21-C.Woods.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (9:41) 16-J.Karty 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 82%

    (5:13) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:13) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to ARI 28, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to LA 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 23-K.Williams to LA 29 for 12 yards (20-D.Dallas).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 18-T.Johnson [91-L.Collier].

  • Q3 LA 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (8:53) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to ARI 5, Center-47-A.Ward. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 18 for 13 yards (84-H.Long).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 64%

    (3:32) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 98%

    (1:22) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams up the middle to ARI 4 for 4 yards (7-K.White; 25-Z.Collins).