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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 11

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(9:41) 16-J.Karty 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP