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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 31

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to ARI 5, Center-47-A.Ward. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 18 for 13 yards (84-H.Long).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP