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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 41

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp to ARI 40 for 1 yard (3-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.24 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.99 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.30 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model